Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
