Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Polling ballots in Myanmar
Myanmar's military is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".

Matthew Horton
Matthew Horton

Sports analytics expert with a decade of experience in predictive modeling and betting strategy development.