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Increasing concerns exist about the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which numerous people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

Amid continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Region

Currently, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict occurred, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the conflict was concluded – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have later worsened once more.